The 2023 NFL Draft set to kick off on Thursday, April 27th at 8pm ET in Kansas City, Missouri.
Below are my predictions and detailed analysis for each pick in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Note: The following teams do not have a first round pick: Miami Dolphins, Denver Broncos, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, and San Francisco 49ers.
#1 Carolina Panthers
Needs: QB, WR, CB, DE Total Picks: 6
Predicted Pick – CJ Stroud (QB)
This pick is 50/50 between CJ Stroud and Bryce Young. Statistical analysts will say Bryce Young is the cleaner prospect that’s a proven winner, but I think his size is going to be an issue in the NFL. I think Stroud fits the mold of a dual-threat QB who can sit and learn for a little while behind Andy Dalton while being coached up by Frank Reich until the time comes to call his name.
#2 Houston Texans
Needs: QB, DE, DT, C Total Picks: 12
Predicted Pick – Bryce Young (QB)
A lot of buzz has surfaced this week around the Houston Texans potentially selecting a defensive player like Will Anderson instead of a QB. Logically, it makes sense since Anderson is one of the surest picks in this draft and will give them a cornerstone player for years to come. But I just can’t see the Texans passing up one of the top 2 QBs after multiple years with Davis Mills at the helm. Put it this way, there will be more defensive options at #12 when the Texans select again opposed to QBs and the Texans
can’t take that risk.
#3 Arizona Cardinals
Needs: DE, DT, RB, CB Total Picks: 8
Predicted Pick – Will Anderson (DE)
In my opinion, the Cardinals would LOVE to trade out of this spot. The only issue is finding the right suitor that wants Will Anderson bad enough to give up a ton of picks. I just don’t think any of the remaining teams will do that. Therefore, the Cardinals stay put and grab the best defensive prospect in this draft. Could be worse.
#4 Indianapolis Colts
Needs: QB, CB, WR, DE Total Picks: 9
Predicted Pick – Will Levis (QB)
With CJ Stroud and Bryce Young both off the board, the Colts elect to go with the next best option in Will Levis. There’s been talk that some of the Colts staff is already high on Will Levis, so having him fall into their laps would be ideal. He might not be as athletic as Anthony Richardson, but he’s a dual-threat QB with a cannon for an arm. New HC Shane Steichen could try and utilize him similar to how he used
Jalen Hurts in Philly.
#5 Seattle Seahawks
Needs: DE, DT, WR, QB Total Picks: 10
Predicted Pick – Jalen Carter (DT)
The Seahawks ranked in the bottom 5 for both pass rush and rush defense. Jalen Carter who was considered the top player coming into this draft before his off-field issues, would make an immediate impact on a defense that desperately needs help. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Seattle pulled off a shocker and selected Anthony Richardson here. They could have him sit and learn behind Geno Smith
for a year, just saying.
#6 Detroit Lions
Needs: TE, CB, DT, OG Total Picks: 9
Predicted Pick – Devon Witherspoon (CB)
A few weeks back, the Detroit Lions traded away their star cornerback Jeff Okudah to the Falcons for a fifth-round pick. Okudah was the #3 overall pick just 3 years ago, so something must have been terribly wrong in Detroit for them to give up so quickly and receive almost nothing in return. That being said, you don’t trade away your top pick from a few years ago without a backup plan in place. The Lions knew they’d get a shot at the top Cornerback in this year’s draft and that’s exactly what they go with by selecting Devon Witherspoon.
#7 Las Vegas Raiders
Needs: CB, LB, OG, OT Total Picks: 12
Predicted Pick – Christian Gonzalez (CB)
The Raiders are one of those teams in this year’s draft that can go in any direction with their pick. Could they draft Garoppolo’s successor? Do they bolster their struggling O-Line? Do they add a star-caliber Cornerback? I’m going to go with the latter seeing as the defensive backfield is in desperate need of a
playmaker.
#8 *TRADE* Houston Texans
Needs: QB, DE, DT, C Total Picks: 12
Predicted Pick – Tyree Wilson (DE)
The Texans have a treasure chest of picks this year, so they use some of them to trade up with the Atlanta Falcons and get one of the top pass rushers for their defense. They fill a need at two of the most important positions in football.
#9 Chicago Bears
Needs: OT, DT, DE, TE Total Picks: 10
Predicted Pick – Peter Skoronski (OT)
One area the Bears neglected during free agency was the offensive line. With this pick, they get to choose from any of the top offensive linemen and go with Peter Skoronski. He’s a nasty run blocker who can play tackle or move inside to Guard if they are concerned about his length. Not to mention, Peter comes from a football family as his grandfather Bob Skoronski won five championships with the Green Bay Packers as a Tackle.
#10 Philadelphia Eagles
Needs: S, DT, RB, LB Total Picks: 6
Predicted Pick – Paris Johnson (OT)
There’s been talk of the Eagles potentially trading up to nab either Paris Johnson or Jalen Carter. With Jalen Carter gone, they opt to stay put and have Paris Johnson fall right into their laps. Considered the top offensive tackle in the draft, Johnson helps bolster the offensive line and potentially act as a replacement for Lane Johnson once he decides to retire.
#11 Tennessee Titans
Needs: OT, OG, WR, LB Total Picks: 6
Predicted Pick – Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
The Titans need help in a few places, but they choose to add some fire power to their offense that desperately lacks it. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a plug and play starter who can act as the perfect compliment to last year’s first round pick Treylon Burks. Before his injury, Jaxon’s stats were off the charts. Better than both of his previous teammates Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson (who just won OROY). If the Titans
decide to give Tannehill one more year, they at least need to give him some weapons.
#12 Atlanta Falcons (via Houston Texans)
Needs: DE, LB, S, OG Total Picks: 7
Predicted Pick – Bijan Robinson (RB)
The Falcons did an impressive job in free agency adding pieces to the defensive side of the ball. However, they’re still missing a pretty important piece on offense at running back. I know it’s not “trendy” to take running backs in the first round, but I’m not sure how many more years Cordarelle Patterson can keep playing “fill-in” at the position for them.
#13 Green Bay Packers
Needs: TE, WR, S, DE Total Picks: 11
Predicted Pick – Quentin Johnston (WR)
This just feels like the biggest middle finger the Packers could possibly send to Aaron Rodgers now that he’s out the door. The Packers have not selected a Wide Receiver in the first round since 2002, even after years and years of Rodgers begging them to do so. However, not only does this send a message to Rodgers, but it also adds a nice playmaker on the outside for new QB Jordan Love now that Allen Lazard
is gone.
#14 *TRADE* Jacksonville Jaguars
Needs: CB, DE, OG, S Total Picks: 9
Predicted Pick – Myles Murphy (DE)
The Jaguars are in ‘Win-Now’ mode with a young competent offense, so instead of sitting back and waiting for someone, they decide to move up and grab one of the top pass rushers in the draft to pair with Josh Allen. The defense ranked in the bottom third of the league last year in opposing pass statistics, so having a pass rush duo certainly helps that.
#15 *TRADE* Seattle Seahawks
Needs: DE, DT, WR, QB Total Picks: 10
Predicted Pick – Anthony Richardson (QB)
They didn’t select him at #5 overall, but their patience paid off. The Seahawks trade up with the Jets to grab their QB of the future in the ultra-talented Anthony Richardson. I feel like the Seahawks will need to make this trade draft night in order to stop the Commanders from potentially nabbing him two picks later. He can sit behind Geno Smith for a year (if needed) before taking over the reigns for years to
come.
#16 Washington Commanders
Needs: CB, TE, QB, OG Total Picks: 8
Predicted Pick – Darnell Wright (OT)
There’s a need at Cornerback and also at defensive end with the news about the Commanders not picking up Chase Young’s fifth-year option, but the Commanders instead choose to bolster their offensive line that has struggled. You can’t be successful or even attract free agent QBs if your offensive line is a mess. This seems like a solid and safe pick for the future of a team undergoing a new owner
change.
#17 Pittsburgh Steelers
Needs: OT, CB, LB, DE Total Picks: 7
Predicted Pick – Joey Porter Jr. (CB)
The Steelers are another team that could go in any direction with this pick. They could grab an offensive lineman to help with a struggling offensive line. They could also grab a linebacker after losing Devin Bush. However, I have them taking Joey Porter Jr. for two reasons: 1) It fills a hole left by Cameron Sutton and 2) It would be an amazing storyline to see Joey Porter Jr. play for the same team his dad played for back in the day.
#18 Detroit Lions
Needs: TE, CB, DT, OG Total Picks: 9
Predicted Pick – Calijah Kancey (DT)
Lions GM Brad Holmes was the GM of the Rams back when they selected Aaron Donald back in 2014. There’s only one player in this year’s draft that went to the same school, has the same athletic build, and has been compared to Aaron Donald by NFL analysts and that’s Calijah Kancey. This pick just makes too much sense in both familiarity and filling a need for the Lions.
#19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Needs: OT, OG, S, LB Total Picks: 9
Predicted Pick – O’Cyrus Torrence (OG)
There were way too many injuries on the Offensive line last year for the Tampa Bay Bucs. This should be a glaring need that they should look to fill in the first round. I have them taking Broderick Jones who displays incredible athleticism and is one of the top tackles in the SEC. He can come in and immediately help.
#20 New York Jets (via Seattle Seahawks)
Needs: OG, OT, TE, S Total Picks: 5
Predicted Pick – Broderick Jones (OT)
The Jets only had five picks to begin with, so trading with the Seahawks made sense. With an offense full of playmakers and a stout defense, the Jets choose to bolster their offensive line for newly acquired Aaron Rodgers. There’s no point in trading for an aging Hall of Fame QB if you can’t keep him healthy, am I right?
#21 Los Angeles Chargers
Needs: DL, WR, RB, OT Total Picks: 7
Predicted Pick – Jordan Addison (WR)
Injuries have plagued the Chargers for what seems like an entire decade now. More recently, they plagued their Wide Receiver core and they still managed to make the playoffs before collapsing to the Jaguars. They need to add some reliable starters to help push them toward Superbowl contention and Jordan Addison can do that. Pairing him with a healthy Kennan Allen and Mike Williams would be scary.
#22 Baltimore Ravens
Needs: CB, RB, DL, OG Total Picks: 5
Predicted Pick – Nolan Smith (DE)
It seems like the Ravens did what they could on offense to hopefully retain Lamar Jackson and entice him to re-sign by bringing on OBJ and Nelson Agholor. Now, they need to fill some needs on the defensive front. With Calais Campbell signing with the Falcons in free agency, they take Nolan Smith who had a terrific combine back in March and can help their pass rush.
#23 *TRADE* Kansas City Chiefs
Needs: DE, OT, DL, WR Total Picks: 10
Predicted Pick – Deonte Banks (CB)
With 10 total picks, the Chiefs are prime candidates to trade up and that’s what they do in order to grab one of the top cornerbacks still left on the board. They could potentially select a Wide Receiver here, but I think they’re comfortable with what they have and take the BPA (Best Player Available) approach.
#24 New England Patriots (via Jacksonville Jaguars)
Needs: OT, WR, TE, DE Total Picks: 11
Predicted Pick – Lukas Van Ness (DE)
In typical Patriots fashion, they trade back in the first round and still grab a player that just seems like they were born to be a Patriot. Lukas Van Ness is a high-motor player and had a fantastic combine to showcase his skillset. The Patriots could opt to take an offensive linemen here, but Lukas Van Ness helps spark their pass rush in a division that needs to get after the QB.
#25 New York Giants
Needs: WR, CB, C, LB Total Picks: 10
Predicted Pick – Zay Flowers (WR)
The biggest need for the Giants is Wide Receiver. I honestly think it’s a toss-up between Zay Flowers and Jalin Hyatt, but I’m going to go with Flowers here. I think they did a good job giving Daniel Jones a bigbodied option in the pass game by adding Darren Waller in FA. Now, they can add a speedster on the outside to help take the top off opposing defenses.
#26 Dallas Cowboys
Needs: TE, OG, DL, C Total Picks: 7
Predicted Pick – Michael Mayer (TE)
As of right now, I don’t think the Cowboys have a starting Tight End on their roster. They could
potentially draft a running back or even an offensive linemen, but with the top Tight End still on the board, I think they need to pull the trigger. Michael Mayer is a complete player who can block and catch and will fill an immediate need for the Cowboys.
#27 Buffalo Bills
Needs: OG, RB, CB, LB Total Picks: 6
Predicted Pick – Jahmyr Gibbs (RB)
Much like the Raiders and Steelers, the Bills are tough to predict with their pick. They could use some help at Cornerback opposite Tre’Davious White or even help bolster their offensive line. However, watching the Bills come up short the last few years has shown me one major piece they’re missing and that’s runningback. Too many times defenses sit back in coverage because they don’t honor the Bills run game. If Jahmyr Gibbs can come in and immediately change the run game, the Bills will be on the
doorstep of the Superbowl and hopefully make that final step forward.
#28 Cincinnati Bengals
Needs: OT, TE, S, CB Total Picks: 7
Predicted Pick – Brian Branch (SS)
A lot of folks think the Bengals will go with a Tight End here. It’s possible, but they just recently signed Irv Smith in free agency. However, they lost both starting safeties in free agency which is not ideal. They need to address that glaring hole immediately and they do so by taking the top Safety on the board out of Alabama.
#29 New Orleans Saints
Needs: LB, DE, S, TE Total Picks: 8
Predicted Pick – BJ Ojulari (DE)
The Saints somehow managed to correct their salary cap yet again, but they lost some key defensive pieces in the process. With this pick, they take a pass rusher that may need some work, but has incredible upside. If he can contribute right away, the Saints could be a serious playoff contender with a complete roster.
#30 *TRADE* Green Bay Packers
Needs: TE, WR, S, DE Total Picks: 6
Predicted Pick – Dalton Kincaid (TE)
The Packers trade back into the first to grab one of the top 2 Tight Ends in the draft. They’ll want to give Jordan Love all the weapons he needs to succeed and a Tight End is a necessity for newer QBs that need a reliable option underneath coverages.
#31 Minnesota Vikings (via Kansas City Chiefs)
Needs: CB, WR, OG, LB Total Picks: 5
Predicted Pick – Jalin Hyatt (WR)
With the final pick in the first round, the Minnesota Vikings select Adam Thielen’s replacement in Jalin Hyatt. The Vikings did a good job adding to the defensive line in free agency, so pairing Hyatt with Justin Jefferson is going to wreck havoc on opposing teams’ defensive playbooks.
GameDay Guru 